Santa Anita for Monday 2 January 2017
Rail and speed was dynamite with the floated off track yesterday. My guess is the track will have less moisture in it today but will still have some. Also, the only race that might be taken off of the grass is the one down the hill so there are selections for the main track as well as the turf.
Best of luck as always!
race 1 Â Â average clarity
7  My Pi Romance  all three lifetime endeavors fit fine in this spot and her latest was on the grass and at today's one mile distance......and Prat remains aboard and the stout grass jock is my favorite rider on young developing grass horses
1  Urban Heat  Carly Gaines sure seems overdue to have a grass 1st time starter run a strong race as over the years she has done extremely well with grass debut runners......decent work regiment for this 1ster and a good pedigree to take to the turf
5  Ashley's Charms   decent grass MSW debut..... the kind of debut that if she logically builds on the effort she should be a major factor in the outcome of this race
3 Â Radish
Long-shot consideration:  8  Enchanted Jasmine   broke slowly and then ran 3 wide in her MSW 5F grass debut and predictably was beaten badly.......but......she showed enough on the sod to believe the surface is a fit.......and her trainer is quite dangerous 1st time at a route
race 2 Â Â average clarity
3  Woodstock Memory  seems best at SA and has run better at the somewhat speciality distance of 7f than his record would indicate.......and he gets a rider upgrade
5  Smarty Party Papa  takes that ever dangerous drop from MSW racing to low-level maiden claiming.......he showed plenty of ability albeit on the AW at GG in his lone race which was on Oct 22nd......prolonged work series since.....OK pedigree for a fast or off track
10  Big Bad Jon  seems best at SA and might have enough early speed to get a good up close position in this affair.......sre like the way T C Baze is riding to start the new meeting
1 Â Mintenized
Long-shot consideration:  2  States Hero  likely goes off at odds of 50 to 1 or higher.....last was improved but not nearly good enough.....but......the blinkers are off for today and the 3 works since his last are vastly improved......good sire and mom has tossed 8 winners from her other 11 starters including 2 Stakes winners
race 3 Â Â average clarity
5  I'malreadythere  trainer is very dangerous 1st time in claiming and Hollendorfer makes a rider upgrade for today to Mr Bejarano......blinkers on so more speed can be expected and this race seems to favor anyone who can show some today
2  Championofjustice  good works at one of my favorite training centers and very good works at SA since arriving from the Midwest......trainer Ewing knows how to ship and win.......dangerous and likely at a decent price
4  Sure Luck  won despite a bad trip to graduate in his latest.......will need a better trip today on the step up.....might get it if Iggy can clear and grab the lead or at least sit close
8 Â Oh Marvelous Me
race 4 Â Â average clarity
1  Star of Quality  exits a fast heat (earning a solid fig) where she ran 2nd despite running wide on a good rail day.......reassuring work since hints she has held form
2  Gio's Lady  all three lifetime races without wearing blinkers fit fine here........exits the same fast heat (also earning a solid fig) as our top pick but she did have a good trip
6  Let Me Flatter You  decent sprint debut and now tries a route......like her pedigree for a track with some moisture in it.......speed was good yesterday and she has as a good a shot as any to grab the early lead
7 Â Road Test
race 5 Â Â average clarity
(if taken of the turf: 7-1-8-9-10)
1  Tribal Fighter  very solid efforts which were quite a bit better than par for today's level down the SA hill grass course......should be extremely tough in this spot unless he doesn't handle a grass course with some give to it as well as one that is firm
8  Tiz a Billy  dangerous down the hill especially on a good rated turf where he won by 6 1/2L the only time he ran on one down the hill......dangerous for sure
5  Lauren's Ladd  by far best on the SA hill but I believe she will need a good trip to beat either of our top two picks.........but......Baze has given him good rides in both of his races down the hill
7 Â Gutsy Ruler
race 6 Â Â average clarity
10  Curly Road   Machowsky is good with the sprint-route-sprint manuever and very reliable when he shows good works....both are the case here......and he is willing to drop his gelding one level to get the job done
7  And Then Some  Treece is quite dangerous 1st out following a claim and he sure got his new shooter to work "big".....as in 46:1 at La just 6 days ago.......should be in the mix from the get go......proven on a racing surface with some moisture in it
6  Big Champion  drops below the claiming price that O'Neill and friends took him for.......and he has as good a shot as anyone to grab the lead......not out of this be any means but might be over-bet
4 Â Redneck Crazy
race 7 Â Â average clarity
1  Well Measured  back to Espinoza who has shown that he fits this gelding very well.......trainer drops and there isn't anyone more dangerous these days on a drop than I'm not afraid to lose a horse Petter Miller
6  Matriculate  Spawr is at his most dangerous route to sprint at the tune of 39% win route to sprint with his last 36......and his five-year old does his best running at Santa Anita
8  Jonny's Choice  might be a good claim by Jacobson of a gelding that just won by 9 1/4.....and he must like what he sees to step his new shooter up twice the claiming level
5 Â Boy Howdy
race 8 Â Â below average clarity
(11 AE  Patriots Rule  has a shot if he draws into the field)
9  Gangster  last his 1st ever on the sod is very solid here and the extra 1/16th should be a plus.......? mark is the softer grass as his lone grass race was on lightning quick turf
7  Ward 'n Jerry  not my favorite turf jock in Elliot but what a great job of riding this sharp grass four-year old colt....shooting for his 4th straight grass win....although with his pedigree he also is ? mark on a softer grass course
4  Sky Preacher  on the improve since the blinkers were added and it sure is nice to see his rider Corey Nakatani get off to a good start in his return to S Cal racing......dangerous improving individual
1 Â Royal Albert Hall
race 9 Â Â below average clarity
9  Door's Open  usually hate the crap shoot of a massive drop in claiming but this one does make some sense as this laid up Cerin runner basically runs well fresh and then knocks himself out ......as in soon back to the farm.....so at the ripe age of 7 why not drop him and win and maybe lose him as this is only his 15th career start since debuting in 2013
2  Pat the Bear  popped a very big number in his last but obviously not in the best of physical shape as the claim was voided............but........ gets plenty of time off to recover ........very good history when Pena rides......and 1 for 1 on an off track
12  Changing Karma  claimed by Knapp who is a stellar 22% win following a claim with his last 37......and with the change in trainers comes a change in riders and it is a major upgrade in jocks
1 Â Outthink'em
11 Â Cinco de Mario
4 Â Tribal Again