Santa Anita for Monday 16 January 2016
Difficult card to decipher and somewhat taxing to study as basically 13 races needed to be handicapped with the potential of the races being yanked off of the grass once again. Looks like more off track surfaces and no grass races for Friday and Saturday with some heavy rain in the Arcadia forecast between now and then. What a bummer.
Best of luck as always!
race 1 Â Â below average clarity
(if the race is taken off of the turf 8-3-9-5-7)
7  Golden Light  solid grass races with 2 months rest in her last two races......3 months off today.......has run nicely on firm turf but she sure has a pedigree that should handle softer turf as well
5  Pied N True  lone lifetime race off of short rest is her best to date.......short rest today.......turf sprint to turf route which is right up Matt Chew's alley......and Smith concurs as he sticks around
9  Mai Tai  has shown up every race except once....and that poor effort was off of short rest which is the case today as well.......rated two low if she handles the short time interval this go around
8 Â Jennyway U Want It
race 2 Â Â above average clarity
1  Lil Miss Sapphire  lifetime best and a strong number for today's level was her only race competing on the SA surface......T C Baze has opened up a big lead in the trainer standings at Santa Anita and has a good chance to add to that here with a gate to wire win
3  Cioppino Pasadino  seems to be in rebound mode and that can continue today but he does lose Baze to our top selection......2 for 3 at SA.......0 for 6 elsewhere
5  Friendly Request  weak number winning her MC debut at 1st asking but she did close from the rear with a ridiculously slow pace being set up front.....with that said.......she will still need more today
race 3 Â Â average clarity
4  Out of Patient  does his best running at Santa Anita and also runs consistently well at today's 7F distance (5 2 0 3)......and he usually tough in races for a tag less than 25K.......a trifecta of reasons to consider him
1  Deep Consideration  2 for 5 at SA on the dirt........1 for 23 elsewhere........and quite consistent overall on dirt (13 2 5 3)......and he has handled the somewhat specialty distance of 7F quite well ( 3 1 1 1)
3  Muchos Besos  placed in a protected race way over his head off of the extended hiatus from the game in his latest......just a spin around the track.......drops and might be fit enough now with a race under his belt to handle a level that fits if he is
7 Â Celebrated Talent
race 4 Â Â below average clarity
(if the race is taken off of the turf  2-4-7-8-1)
7  Ceeme Run Wild   like the cut back route to sprint........seems better suited for a sprint and she might be a grass move up with a pedigree that is quite good for the sod.......trainer/rider are usually a "live" combo having hit the board in 6 for their last 9 over the last two months
8  Angel Eria  SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE well proven racing in grass sprints including her latest which was down the majestic SA hill grass course........not the top choice mostly because Drysdale in his Social Security years so often runs clunkers when one of his runners appear to be in a good spot and conversely often run good races when they are not
2  Fabulous Lady  lifetime best was in her lone race down the SA hill grass course........impressive 4F drill since which was the best of 110 to work on 26 Dec.........retains Desormeaux......not out of the picture by any means
4 Â Dalsaros
Long-shot consideration:  5  Blame the Weather  might get ignored and go off a price worth playing as she only went for $10K at sale....... but........ she doesn't work as if she a cheap horse.......decent grass pedigree and for a trainer in Mandella who can win with a 1ster debuting on the hill
race 5 Â Â average clarity
7  Troublewithatee  last run at Dmr fits fine but what we want is his very impressive race run two back which was at SA......in that race he was given a very wide trip and still managed 2nd.......trainer and rider teamed up for a win yesterday
2  Dabster  strong MSW sprint debut crossing the wire in front only to get DQ'ed.......two reassuring works since.....beautifully bred to get the distance.......Raffy will be out to make amends to Baffert and company
4  Surfside Sunset   broke slowly and ran wide in his debut losing 5 or 6 lengths.......did well to only get beat by 4L in a 6F sprint......we liked him that day and we like him once again as he is bred to get the two turns and has trained well since his debut.......good route rider in Desormeaux sticks around
1 Â Reach the World (tie for 4th)
9 Â Seau (tie for 4th)
race 6 Â Â average clarity
4  Summertimemischief  SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE  likely has slipped physically speaking but it is hard to ignore that the only 3 times this filly got to compete on fast rated dirt she ran efforts that would win here......as in put a line thru her last 4 races which were turf - turf - wet fast - wet fast
2  Warren's Honey Bee  stands out here especially if our top pick is "shot" but she does need to overcome her tendency to hang in the stretch
8  Candy Coded  last two races are so so.....but......she finally gets to run off of short rest and with two recent decent reassuring works since her latest
9 Â Irish Devil
race 7 Â Â average clarity
(if the race is taken off of the turf  4-5-2-6)
5  Kenriya  great spot for a new shooter like this French invader........this Grade 3 came up weak which enhances the chances of this filly who should take to a turf course rated something other than firm if of course she handles the drastic change in her surroundings
2  Prize Exhibit  has done well in non Grades Stakes races and even though this is a Grade 3 in sure doesn't look like one.....and she runs her best at SA .....also she is 3 for 12 at the one mile turf distance
6  Tiz a Kiss  would have consider placing higher if she was running on a firm turf today but of course it is highly likely that she is not.......her last two endeavors on grass raced "good" aren't too hot.......still as mentioned above this a weak field for a Graded race
7 Â Into The Mystic
race 8 Â Â average clarity
5  Aura Rose  1st time Bejarano riding for Truman is usually a dangerous proposition..........three year old filly has been 4th racing for mdn 62,500........2nd racing for mdn 50,000.......???? racing today for mdn 40,000
9  Singleforareason  takes that ever dangerous drop from MSW racing to maiden claiming....... owns significant early speed and likely will need to be caught.......rider upgrade.....should be tough
7  Sly Humor  last sure fits at today's higher MC level.....but was it the slop that was the catalyst for the best effort of her life ?........we shall see today
11 Â Munny Spunt
race 9 Â Â below average clarity
8  Individual Design  toss out her last run on off track......race 2 back run on a fast track is solid and hidden by a slow start and a wide trip.....and she has a good history racing at SA on a fast track ( 7 3 1 1)
9  Ipray  trainer is 8 for his last 24 dropping after a claim with another 8 hitting the board.........claimed for 10k and in for 8K today......and puts Bejarano up who owns a very solid history riding this gal
7  Astra Star  has something to prove on the conventional dirt but bothers to ship from GG and takes a significant drop in claiming
1 Â Private Terrace
race 10 Â Â average clarity
(if the race is taken off of the turf  3-11-13-2-8-9-1)
3  Kimbear  on the improve and his last on the dirt stands out in this spot......back to the grass which he showed that he likes and the way in which he just performed in a dirt sprint suggests he has the potential run one strong MSW effort in his 1st down the hill
11  Electro  the fact that this Baffert MSW 1st timer starts his career down the hill makes sense as mom has produced 3 grass winners and dad has turned out to be a decent turf sire......works say ready
2  Kona Dreams  colt has 3 good-looking route turf races to start his career.......and if he takes to the hill configuration he should have plenty of stamina cutting back to a sprint today to finish up well when push comes to shove
8 Â Avalanche
6 Â Ritzy A. P.
5 Â Marchtothemusic