Del Mar for Saturday 10 November 2018
Hope to keep the ball rolling after a nice opening day at Del Mar.Â
Best of luck as always!
race 1Â Â below average clarity
6 Bahamian might be a good claim by Cerin as this gelding's race 2 back at today's 5F distance (and run on the Dmr turf) is par like for the MSW level..........then in his next start at SA (in a race down the hill) his effort was also decent and disguised by a tough trip........he was wide on the turn on the grass then he and bore out crossing the dirt a couple of lengths.......solid improved a.m. work since the claim hints Cerin has a good handle on his new addition to the barn
3 Sir Eddie  shows up every time when sprinting on the turf.....but so far he seems to have little clue at what it means to hold a lead and win.......maybe the blinkers coming off might change things but then again the trainer is 0 for his last 9 (and only 2 even hit the board) with "blinkers off"
2 Shanghai Billy  nice MSW debut two races back on the dirt......clunker in 2nd lifetime start......likely hurt in the race as he has been away since......returns as a first time gelding and with a strong work tab that suggests he is ready once again "fresh" like he was in his debut.......1st on the sod is a question mark with only a so so pedigree for it
1 Persuasive Cat
9Â Spanish Bay
race 2Â Â below average clarity
6 Ciao Luna  by far at her best and very consistent when competing at today's 5 1/2 furlong distance......proven on the Del Mar dirt........good trainer/rider combo in Knapp and Franco......rather sure this three-year old fires a good effort
4 We Will Rejoice  7 for 10 at "today's distance"......would have been top pick if she didn't have a record of (4 0 0 1) at Del Mar on the dirt.......still don't count her out of the win picture in this spot
2 Easter Dream  1 for 10 on the synthetic........won her only race on conventional dirt at Otp by a widening at the wire 3 lengths......1st out following the Vallejo claim and the trainer has won 9 for his last 28 with the move........dangerous sort
1Â Bragging Rights
race 3Â Â average clarity
7 Sedamar  strong better than par Santucci fig in her 2nd lifetime start in the 18 August version of this one mile Cal-bred one mile grass race.......new jock today and an underrated one in Ruben Fuentes following a wide trip from a good starting post from M Garcia.......highly likely to be a major factor in the outcome of this race as this appears to be a soft group
4 Stylin Ocean  decent first on the grass in her 2nd lifetime start finishing behind our top pick by a couple of lengths.........the effort appears to have really muscled her up as she just worked an eye-popping 59:1 best of 40 bullet drill at SA.......expecting a forward move today........to what degree seems to be the is the ? mark
2 Don'tbeboisterous  strong improvement in her second lifetime start and the effort is hidden some by a slow start and a bit of a wide trip........1st at a route and the turf......like her pedigree to handle the sod but not as crazy about her ability to take to a route
10Â Apache Princess
3Â Boolicious
race 4Â Â average clarity
6 Super Touch  very consistent when Diodoro has put him up for a tag.........strong bullet 5F preparatory work at Tup just 6 days ago......gelding has handled Dmr decently in the past
4 London Legacy  SCRATCHED OUT OF THE RACE double barrel action from the Diodoro barn as he also trains our top selection........six year old gelding has had a very strong 2018 (10 6 2 2) on the dirt........seems well placed to succeed........Maldonado up so that hints the connections want this fellow on or close to the lead
2 Fire to the Wire  seems like they old gimme/go for this gelding.......raced over his head in his last in a protected race........back up for 16K today which was the claiming level that Lerner claimed him for two races back........like our 2nd choice he should be in the mix from the get go
3Â Stringent
race 5Â Â average clarity
1 My Sweet Baboo  very solid effort/fig in the 3 September version of this MSW race and it was this youngster's debut.......connections were able to get Prat (who is terrific with two year old developing grass horses) to ride her debut and he is also up today........better post for Flavien to work with this afternoon.......graduation day has a decent shot at occurring today
9 Colonial Creed  ignore hill race in his latest as he blew the turn badly crossing the dirt.........monster effort in the same 3 September race as our top selection..........earned a Santucci fig that 2 1/2L better than our top pick.......only made the 2nd choice because the top choice seemingly has more upside potential
7 Flying Blue  decent pair of one mile grass races to start career.....but......she will likely need her best to date if either of our top two picks repeat their 3 September race
6Â Mercy Mercy
3Â Fashion Island
race 6Â Â average clarity
5 Carrie's Success  very strong vastly improved 4F work put in 8 days ago........lone lifetime win came turf to dirt in her 3rd lifetime start.......3rd out following a long layoff today and once again races turf o dirt........hmmmm
7 Lucky Val  both lifetime sprint races are better than par efforts for today's given level......and her latest was run off of 95 days rest........79 days rest today.........once very dangerous Kathy Walsh is win-less for 2018 albeit with only 12 starters......she might get the elusive victory today
2 Sea Glass  possible back to back excuses........might not have liked the off track in her last and she had a very bad trip 2 back.....prior two races which were her 1st two with the blinkers on fit fine here.........dangerous sort
6Â Majestic Authority
1Â Dressed in Prada
race 7Â Â average clarity
2 Prince Earl  seems likely to get a nice ground saving mid pack position at least thru turn one......like his chances if that is his position as there is enough early speed to play into his hands.........as in flatter his late kick
1 Afleet Ascent  hard trying sort shows up almost every time..........looking for his effort run 3 back which was at Del Mar and at today's one mile turf distance.........nasty post in that race (post 12)......1 post today......Desormeaux has options as his mount showed he can run a strong effort without the lead in that race 3 back
5 Extrordinary Jerry  seems best at one mile on the tur..f.....gets a jock upgrade......last race run at Del Mar was at today's turf distance and is quite a bit better than it appears in print.......some shot at the winners circle but easy to make 3rd pick-a-rue
3Â Choo Choo
race 8Â Â average clarity
5 Shivermetimbers  at her best at Del Mar (3 2 0 1) and the two wins were with today's rider Mike Smith aboard.......ironically her 3rd place race at Dmr where she was beaten by 7 1/2 lengths is by far her career best earning an adjusted Santucci fig (11 lengths of adjustment) that was equivalent to a G1 effort
7 Captain Scotty  not much dirt speed signed up so this sprinter trying long for the 1st time has a good spot to snatch the front end of things which should enhance his chances of being tough in his 1st two turn endeavor....and then there is the Peter Miller factor
3 Ike Walker  best at Del Mar on the dirt and by a wide margin.......and also seems best at today's one mile distance.......dangerous "horse for course" type here
4Â Pepe Tono
race 9Â Â average clarity (SHF carryover here)
2 Out of Balance  nice 17 to 1 MSW turf sprint debut down the majestic SA hill grass course and it seems like a good sign that she is able to return in 22 days for today's one mile grass race which she was likely was pointed for all along........excellent pedigree to handle the one mile of turf......good post should help the bug boy work out an OK trip
10 Tapwater  very strong dirt debut in a MSW race run on July 22nd......off since but returns with a work regiment that says she is ready fresh........very solid distance/turf pedigree........nasty post but the right guy to overcome it in Prat
9 Encanta  solid race down the hill in her last answers the can she handle the turf question.........now she needs to answer the route question........pedigree for a route is decent.....and she has the classic sprint-sprint-route scenario for today's race.......like our 2nd choice the post is no bargain
6Â Bizwhacks
1Â Ask the Customer
5Â Samandah