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Del Mar for Saturday 13 November 2021

Beautiful 80 degree sunny day at Del Mar today. Wish I was there as it is one dreary day in Chicagoland following a gorgeous fall until recently. 

Best of luck as always!

 

race 1    average clarity

2  Supersonic Flyer   three year old filly caught two next out winners who ran more like MSW Cal-breds than Cal-bred MC50K's......cut back in distance is a plus and the jock change is a plus especially considering almost everything Prat gets from the Powell barn "very live"

4  Roses R Blue   three year old filly beat our top choice in her MC50K debut and has a decent shot to do it again if the rider change to Prat for our top pick isn't as significant as I believe it will be

1  Big Strike

 

race 2    below average clarity

2  Cherubic Factor   all 4 of this gelding's sprint races fit well in this spot and the race 2 back is very strong.........three year old needs to show his speed that he displayed last spring or 5F might be too short of a distance for him........back to the jock (Mario Gutierrez) who was aboard for those to solid races........should go off a bit of a price

6  Wipe the Slate   1st on the sod for this Baltas three year old but he owns a pedigree that says he should handle it.......that and his preparatory works are very impressive bullet drills (58:4 and 47.0H).....Gutierrez goes to our top choice but Víctor Espinoza will do just fine

5  Surplus

3  Love My Jimmy

 

race 3    average clarity

4  Funkenstein   quite the rider upgrade from a low % rider to the top gun in S Cal these days in Flavien Prat......all 4 lifetime dirt races fit and his latest run on 11 Oct is disguised some in its strength by a poor start and a wide trip.......Puype three year old drops to the lowest level in his career enhancing his chances of a visit to the circle of joy this afternoon

9  Da Kine   last race most likely will not do the trick as this Baltas five year old blew a soft paced lead..........but.......his race two back would as he almost won despite setting a brutal set of fractions........can he mount a rebound - maybe/maybe not as this is only his 10th start and he debuted in 2018......ouch-a-rama

5  Straus's Place

3  Try to Capture

6  Inesperado

 

race 4    average clarity

3  Impossible Task   four year old gelding is more than deserving of today's step up in class as he just won a 7F sprint and he appears better suited to route racing.......2 of his 3 one mile dirt races are very strong and better than they appear in print.........bug girl Ellingwood deservedly gets the mount back and she has won 3 of her last 4 for trainer John Sadler over the last two mounts........gelding should be in the hunt from the get go

1  Divine Armor   dangerous off of the pace runner won the last time he ran off of short rest........21 days since his latest qualifies for that.........first time Prat......hard not to like

5  Phantom Dance

 

race 5    average clarity

4  Big Bell   solid improvement in her latest running a Santucci fig about 3L better than par when you adjust for pace........Pyfer should have a good opportunity to get loose thus dangerous........stout rider/trainer combo of late in Pyfer/Yakteen as in 3 for their last 5 win

6  Kitten's Kid   Peter Miller's filly moved forward in her latest and ran a par like effort in a 6 1/2F turf race at SA.......Prat stays put for this girl's 1st turf route which should be a big plus........but the pedigree for this filly is better for sprinting than routing......that and one of Miller's softer stats is "1st at a route" (13% last 105).......still Mr Pratt should get a nice stalk position behind our top pick......dangerous but not enough to make her our top-pick-rue

7  Issa Court

9  Finnley's Kitten

8  Piazzetta

 

race 6    average clarity

7  Wesleyan   Baffert's has 3 in here and that can make things tricky........drills are "Baffert strong" for this two year old MSW 1st timer and this fellow's pedigree should help him deal with the extended sprint distance of  6 1/2 furlongs

5  Sir London  better post for this colt's 2nd lifetime start and he retains the meets top gun.........4 tightly spaced drills since his 3 Oct 2nd place finish.......hard not to like this Simon Callaghan expensive two year old

1  Pac Tacular

2  Air Combat

8  Bron and Brow

 

race 7    average clarity

5  Aligato   four year old gelding had bad trips in both lifetime races and still managed to close well........today's "line-up " should yield a decent set if fractions.......better trip today for this four year old this afternoon and he will have a shot to blast on by all in late stretch

8  Too Late    four year old tossed a clunker in his latest so O'Neill gave him some time off and in the interim worked him five times.......seems best on the Del Mar sod.....might be the last time to run on it until mid July 2022........O'Neill likely has him ready because of it

3  Riding With Dino

1  Crossword

2  See Through It

 

race 8    average clarity

5  Eda   this filly is definitely the best horse in the race to date........combine that with what appears to be a spot where she can gear down and still get a loose lead.......it's almost like a free "win" square for Baffert and Prat

4  Tonito's   bad trip in this girls MSW debut and she still managed to win.........but if our top choice runs the race that I think she will this promising filly will need a better trip and a significant move forward.......trainer's hot........stranger things have happened

3  Under the Stars

 

race 9    average clarity

3  Ottawa Fire   cut back in distance of a full quarter of a mile and for this D'Amato four your old who appears best suited for a one mile grass race..........stout 5F drill just six days a go........Rispoli stays put.......all systems go

5  Cool Your Jets   six year old gelding appears to be at his best on the Del Mar grass and at today's one mile distance........race 3 back which was the last time he raced at one mile on the Del Mar turf fits well here and is somewhat disguised in it's strength........Bravo stays put and he has been heating things up recently following a small slump

4  Ox Bridge

8  Bud Bud Knight

1  Muay Thai